Note that the article was finished in the year 2000 and the predictions, particularly that of a peaking in global oil supply around the year 2005 were, in retrospect, spot on.
We are attempting to mitigate Peak Natural Gas by way of the horribly destructive practice of hydraulic fracturing, ditto for oil with the Canadian Tar Sands. Both are unsustainable, and are only prolonging the inevitable while destroying fresh water supplies and adding massive amounts of carbon based pollution to the atmosphere.
We were aware of these crises in the 70's. We did nothing to avert the present course were on. It is highly improbable that we will voluntarily reduce our consumption and revert to simple, localized agrarian lifestyles en masse. The crash has already begun, with the global economic crises only symptomatic of the underlying mismatch between the voracious appetite of a now Globalized Throw-Away Capitalism culture and the planets natural support systems ability to continue to provide the required resources and absorb the pollution produced.
Thank the Free-Marketeers and their late progenitors, Milton Freidman and Ronald Reagan who after a peaking in U.S. oil supply (1971) and with rivers literally on fire from lack of environmental safeguards ushered in further unprecedented environmental and financial deregulation under the premise that "The Invisible Hand" knows best. Lets take a look at where we now stand in both regards and ask ourselves if this is true. All "The Invisible Hand" knows how to do is consolidate wealth for its "Invisible Masters", 1% of Global Society whose identities and crimes are largely hidden and shielded by the anonymity of the Corporate State. Thank the Fundamentalist Christians and Neo-Conservatives who wanted to fulfill their interpretation of Biblical Prophecy, to usher in Armageddon via ecological suicide and nuclear conflagration to justify in moral and ethical terms two centuries of Empire, of slavery, of resource expropriation and genocide. In their twisted minds if Jesus returns to save them then it was all pre-ordained in "Revelations" and there was nothing we could've done to alter our present course. THEY ARE AND ALWAYS HAVE BEEN TOTALLY INSANE.
Now on to the hard data:
Source: http://www9.ocn.ne.jp/~aslan/2050pfee.htm
Agriculture and Energy in Japan - 2000 to 2050
Abstract
Energy will perhaps never be as cheap and abundant in Japan as it is today. But the era of cheap and abundant energy (primarily oil) is drawing slowly to a close. In twenty to thirty years' time it will probably not be possible to rely as we do today on cheap and abundant energy sources to help grow, process and transport food, or to make fertilizers and other agricultural chemicals. Japan will have to rethink its agricultural policies, and its eating habits. By looking at agricultural and lifestyle statistics over the last 120 years, it should be possible to discern what Japan needs to do to carry out the transition (return) to a sustainable way of life.
1. Japan and the Current World Situation
Japan's current situation and the prospects for the mid-term future must be seen against the backdrop of the world situation with respect to population, food, and energy.
1.1 {Population}
The population of the world is now around six billion and may reach 7.5 billion in 2020 and 8.9 billion in 2050, according to the UN 1998 Estimates and Projections. (www.popin.orgPop1998/)
1998 | 2050 | 1998 | 2050 | |||
| People's Republic of China | 1,255,698 | 1,477,730 | Brazil | 165,851 | 244,230 | |
| India | 982,223 | 1,528,853 | Pakistan | 148,166 | 345,484 | |
| United States of America | 274,028 | 349,318 | Russian Federation | 147,434 | 121,256 | |
| Indonesia | 206,338 | 311,857 | Japan | 126,281 | 104,921 |
It is well known that the population of some countries is likely to continue to rise, sometimes extremely quickly, and that the population of many of the more developed countries will fall. It is estimated that {Japan's population} will peak around 2007 at just under 127.8 million. Note that the population of the USA is expected to continue to increase.
1.2 Undernourishment
According to the recent report on food insecurity from the FAO (www.fao.org/), there are about 800 million undernourished people in the world today. Yet there is enough grain to provide every human being on the planet with 3500 calories per day, which could, with other foods, provide at least 2 kg of food person per day, including 1135 g of grain, beans and nuts, and nearly another 450 g of meat, milk and eggs(1). We can feed everyone, we simply do not have a system for distributing food more equitably. We could start by releasing for human consumption the 38% of world grain now fed to animals (70% in USA), but that is not a policy likely to be implemented in the near future.
1.3 The degradation of agricultural resources
World agricultural resources are now threatened by a complex of problems: soil erosion and nutrition problems, global warming and other environmental problems, and water deficits. Soil erosion rates from a world total of about 1,430 million ha of cropland average 30-40 tons per ha/year worldwide and about 17 tons per ha/year in the USA and EU. About 12 million ha is destroyed and abandoned worldwide each year, a further 10-35 million ha being lost to urbanization and roads. The need to create cropland is a major factor in deforestation.(2) The interesting thing is that one factor involved in the destruction of the soil is that we are maintaining both fertility and (land and labor) productivity through the use of fossil energy resources -- chemical fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides, and the use of machinery.
How will global warming, the depletion of the ozone layer, acid rain (e.g. if we attempt to maintain current levels of economic activity on coal in the latter part of the 21st Century), and other environmental problems affect agricultural production? We do not really know, but as they are unlikely to lead to increases in production, a cautious approach would seem to be wise.
The USA, China (PRC), India, North Africa and the Middle East are running total water deficits to the tune of well over 160 billion cubic meters (bcu) per year. (For comparison, it is thought that the Ogallala Aquifer once held 3,700 bcu and its current annual depletion rate is about 12 bcu)(3) About 40% of the world's annual grain harvest is produced on the roughly 17% of the cropland that is irrigated.
These trends show that the ability of all countries to feed their populations, and the ability of current grain exporting countries to continue to export is being impaired. This situation is more than likely to be further exacerbated by future shortages of fossil energy resources.
1.4 World energy supplies
Oil and other fossil energy resources are not about to run out, but we are apparently approaching the halfway mark in the extraction of oil resources. It is almost certain that when that mark is passed annual oil production totals will gradually fall and the world will experience a general tightening in the supply of oil, and of energy as a whole. It is thought that the world production curve for oil will peak around 2005. The same is expected to happen with natural gas between 2010 and 2020. Tight supplies will mean that prices will rise and that supply disruptions are far more likely to occur. In any event, it is estimated that at current rates of usage we have around sixty years to go before these two fuels are effectively exhausted.
2. Japan's Food and Energy Self-sufficiency
Japan is dependent on just a very few countries for its food and energy supplies. She relies on imports for 59% of her dietary energy supply -- food. The degree of dependency for major food supplies can be seen from the following table.
| item | country | amount | share | item | country | amount | share | |
| Wheat | USA | 3433 | 54.40 | Soybeans | USA | 3891 | 76.90 | |
| Canada | 1600 | 25.30 | Brazil | 559 | 11.10 | |||
| Australia | 1282 | 20.30 | Others | 607 | 12.00 | |||
| Total | 6315 | 100.00 | Total | 5057 | 100.00 | |||
| Maize | USA | 15266 | 94.80 | Beef | USA | 307 | 47.30 | |
| Others | 831 | 5.20 | Australia | 306 | 47.10 | |||
| Total | 16097 | 100.00 | Total | 649 | 100.00 | |||
| Source: Statistical Appendix to Agricultural White Paper (1998) [JAPAN], p.120 | ||||||||
Japan relies on imports for 80% of its current energy use (more if you count uranium imports as electricity from nuclear power is counted as domestic production). Japan is also dependent on the Middle East for more than 80% of its oil supplies, over 25% of which come from the United Arab Emirates and over 20% from Saudi Arabia.
The outlook for fossil energy resources, world population, and agricultural trends suggest that it may be prudent for the people of Japan to take a serious look at what the mid-term future may hold in store.
2.1 Agriculture in Japan: Year 2000
The problems facing Japan now are as follows:
The population is just under 127 million; cropland per person is about 0.039 ha. This compares with 0.238 ha for the world and 0.593 ha for the USA. An estimate by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries suggests that around 12 million ha are be required to grow the food imported by Japan every year. [+ <5 m ha domestic = <17 m ha total] The current Japanese diet therefore represents a total of 0.134 ha per person.
The Japanese have also changed their diet over the past 60 years, thereby impairing their ability to be self-sufficient in food.
| 1936 | 1960 | 1970 | 1995 | |
| Grains | 157.6 | 149.6 | 128.3 | 101.8 |
| Rice | 135.0 | 114.9 | 95.1 | 67.6 |
| Wheat | 8.5 | 25.8 | 30.8 | 32.7 |
| Meat | 2.2 | 5.2 | 13.4 | 31.2 |
| Eggs | 2.3 | 6.3 | 14.5 | 17.5 |
| Milk & Dairy Products | 3.3 | 22.2 | 50.1 | 91.0 |
| Fish & Shellfish | 9.6 | 27.8 | 31.6 | 38.1 |
| Oils & Fats | 1.0 | 4.3 | 8.9 | 14.5 |
| Year | Population | Farm Population | Farm Workers | Main Farmers | Farmers under 60 | % under 60 |
| 1960 | 93,418,501 | 34,411,000 | 14,542,000 | 11,750,000 | 10,130,000 | 86.21 |
| 1980 | 117,060,396 | 21,366,000 | 6,973,000 | 4,130,000 | 2,980,000 | 72.15 |
| 1990 | 123,661,167 | 17,296,000 | 5,653,000 | 3,130,000 | 1,620,000 | 51.76 |
| 1995 | 125,570,000 | 12,037,000 | 4,140,000 | 2,780,000 | 1,090,000 | 39.21 |
| 1950 | 1955 | 1970 | 1974 | 1974/1950 | |
| Energy Input (fuel, fertilizers, machines, etc) | 9,140 | 13,350 | 36,960 | 47,010 | 5.14 |
| Energy Output (calorific value of the rice) | 11,600 | 14,800 | 17,300 | 17,700 | 1.53 |
| Output/Input | 1.27 | 1.11 | 0.47 | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| Efficiency of Utilization of Sunlight (%) | 0.27 | 0.34 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 1.52 |
The table shows that for a roughly 50% increase in yield (sun energy efficiency), energy input had to be increased 5 times! This is probably true for all commercially grown crops, but can we quantify off-farm energy use for food production? Statistics (1997) show that agriculture, forestry and fisheries account for 3.2%, the food manufacturing industry 1.5%, domestic use 5.7% of Japan's final energy consumption(4), so we could perhaps estimate that 6-7% of Japanese final energy consumption was used in food production and putting the meals on the plates. But it is almost certainly more than that, perhaps 10-15%, because the above estimate does not include many elements such as energy use by restaurants, supermarkets, food transport, the manufacture of kitchen equipment and tools (cookers, ovens, refrigerators, etc) and so on. Maybe we do not need precise statistics, the point being that we currently use a lot of energy to eat, energy that we are going to miss badly when it is either much more expensive, less available, less convenient, or non-existent.
Although soil erosion does not appear to be a major factor in Japanese agriculture, land abandonment has been taking place at the rate of 40-50,000 ha per year during the 90s. Figures for 1997 (total agricultural land 4,949,000 ha) are as in the following table.
Expansion | Contraction | ||||||||
| Total | Cleared | Drained | Reclaimed | P<->F | Total | Natural | Social | P<->F | |
| Paddy | 202 | 18 | - | 68 | 86 | 23100 | 103 | 19800 | 3150 |
| Field | 6150 | 3000 | 0 | 6 | 3150 | 28000 | 18 | 27900 | 86 |
Source: Mizuho Kyoukai, Rice and Wheat Handbook, 1998, p.11
Water shortages (droughts, over-consumption) are a potential problem, as are water gluts (floods, typhoons). If global warming is to result in less rain, possibly irregular rainy seasons, in Japan, even dams will not help, as noted in the drought year of 1994, if rain does not fall. The long-term solution will be to ensure that the Japanese water circulation system, the mountains, forests, uplands, paddy fields, irrigation systems, rivers, lakes, marshes, and aquifers are properly and sustainably maintained.
{2.2 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea}
What happens when things go wrong? The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea, DPRK), a country of about 23.5 million people and agricultural land of about 0.085 ha per person, now has a self-sufficiency in grain of just under 73%. It can afford to buy only around 6% of its needs on the international market and relies on aid for the rest and for sizeable amounts of other foodstuffs. This is just about keeping most of the people alive, but at the expense of chronic illness, especially in the young. What went wrong? Although natural disasters from 1995 to 1997 hit agriculture hard, the decline began in the early 90s when an economic slowdown was triggered by the ending of the special trade relationships with the former USSR and China (PRC). According to FAO reports, only about 20% of all agricultural machinery (trucks, tractors, transplanters, harvesters, irrigation pumps and so on) are working due to shortage of fuel or lack of spare parts and maintenance. As draft animals are in short supply (and require food) much of the farm work in the DPRK has to be carried out by hand. In autumn 1998, harvested paddy was left in the fields for several weeks because of the inability to transport it, resulting in "large post-harvest losses."(5)
Fertilizer availability in DPRK in 1999 was 199,000 tonnes nutrient equivalent, twice as much as in 1998, but still less than one-third of the 700,000 tonnes required. If the country's three fertilizer factories were operating normally they would be able to produce over 400,000 tonnes of fertilizer. Lack of fertilizers has resulted in mining of the soil and reduced yields. The DPRK is in the grip of a systemic tragedy from which it will take several years at the least to extricate themselves.
3. Japan 2000-2050 -- Rural Paradise or another DPRK?
At the end of the era of cheap and abundant fossil energy resources and food imports Japan will probably need to establish a sustainable economy based on basic food self-sufficiency with the minimum of energy inputs. Effectively this means low-input, high-yielding, intensive organic farming. But, as we have seen from the example of DPRK, this cannot be implemented quickly; it could take many years to implement properly. Some of the reasons for this are as follows:
- It is important to maintain soil fertility. This can be achieved through tight recycling of nutrients, though it is unsure exactly what level of yields can be maintained.
- There may be relatively little motive power available. Much of the farm work may have to be done manually or using draft animals. But there are very few animals available now, so the stock must be built up.
- Many of the people do not live where the farm work needs to be done. There may be quite considerable population movement, but it will not be easy to know how much and to where. As mentioned above, many Japanese people do not have farming experience, skills or knowledge. Many are not used to hard physical labor on a daily basis. It will be many years before the majority of people are able to do highly productive agricultural work.
- One important factor in self-sufficiency is diet change. Japanese people may have to return to a more traditional diet, eating what is grown locally and what is available seasonally. There may not be the fuel available for mass transport of food, the cold chain, supermarkets, restaurants, and so on. Many (young) people may not be able to adapt quickly to the change in diet.
| Year | Arable Land (ha) | Planted Area (ha) | Land Use (%) |
| 1956 | 6,012,000 | 8,270,000 | 137.56% |
| 1960 | 6,071,000 | 8,129,000 | 133.90% |
| 1961 | 6,086,000 | 8,071,000 | 132.62% |
In the latter part of the 21st Century, if the population of Japan declines to about 60 million, and if the planted area were around the figure shown above for 1956, the agricultural land per person would be just under 0.138 ha. This is just a little above the figure mentioned above for the total of domestic and overseas land now used to produce Japan's food. If yields were as high as, or close to what they are now, that could represent a fairly good standard of living. If not, the population might have to fall to as low as 30,000,000 in order to stabilize; the population of Japan in the early 19th Century, perhaps representing the population that Japan can maintain under subsistence agriculture -- the carrying capacity of these islands.
----------
- Lappé, Frances M. et al, World Hunger: 12 Myths (2nd Edition), Grove Press, 1998, p.8, p.180 Note 1
- David Pimentel, et.al. Environmental and Economic Costs of Soil Erosion and Conservation Benefits, Science, Vol. 267, pp. 1117-1123 (24 February 1995), David Pimentel, Will Limits of the Earth's Resources Control Human Numbers? February 25, 1999 (www.dieoff.com/Page174.htm)
- Postel, S., When the World's Wells Run Dry, World Watch, Vol. 12, No. 5, Sept/Oct 1999, p.30-38
- EDMC '99 Handbook of Energy & Economic Statistics in Japan, The Energy Conservation Center, Japan, p. 18-19
- FAO, World Food Programme, Special Report: FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply, Assessment Mission to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, 12-Nov-98, 23-Jun-99, 8-Nov-99, for the latest report see:http://www.fao.org/waicent/faoinfo/economic/giews/english/alertes/1999/srkorn99.htm
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